Author(s): KK Saxena and Johnas David Kornelio

Abstract: The National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) was set up in Tanzania in 2001 as a mandatory scheme, offering comprehensive benefit package for its citizen. NHIF membership enrolment forecasting is very essential in managing and providing good and quality health services to the citizens. Majority of decision makings like introduction of new health programs and infrastructure improvements are easily made with the aid of NHIF membership forecasts. In this paper, the data of NHIF membership enrolment of Dodoma region from 2002 to 2016 have been modeled by using Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique to ascertain the growth in the membership of NHIF. The NHIF membership has been further forecasted to the financial year 2016/2017 to 2017/2018 (twenty four months) using seasonal ARIMA (1,2,0) (0,0,1) ^[12] for male, seasonal ARIMA (0,2,0) (1,0,0) ^[12] for female and seasonal ARIMA (0,2,1) (0,0,1) ^[12] for total combined population. The models have been validated using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Ljung-Box statistic values, graphical techniques like time series plots, Q-Q plots and histograms and p-values. The study also explores briefly the recourses required to support current and forecasted NHIF members.

Pages: 103-116 | Views: 686 | Downloads: 12

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