International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics
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2020, Vol. 5, Issue 4, Part C

Use of triple exponential smoothing in the analysis of hydrological data

Author(s): Hudson Nyang'wara Ongiri and Paul Wachiuri Warutumo

Abstract: Regular and correct hand hygiene is one of the most important measures to prevent infection with the COVID-19 virus. WASH practitioners should work to enable more frequent and regular hand hygiene by improving access to hand hygiene facilities to support good hand hygiene behavior. Performing hand hygiene at the right time, using the right technique with either an alcohol-based hand rub and soap and water is critical. It makes water to be an essential resource in the fight against the pandemic. This article ventured into the analysis of water demand by Kisii County householders. This article employed a triple exponential smoothing method. The exponential smoothing methods usually applied in the analysis of univariate time series data. This study employed the Cox-Stuart method to determine the trend of the data. Since p-value = 0.00001141 < the significance level (α) = 0.05, this study concluded that the water data has a trend. The parameters of the triple exponential smoothing were identified to be α=0.2358, β=0.0028 and γ = 0.0976. They were determined in such a way that the mean squared error (MSE) of the error is minimized. In-sample forecasting was employed. No significant difference was noted. The exponential smoothing model was employed in out of sample forecasting, and it was realized that the water demand was expected to decrease. This study recommends the use of other statistical models to establish if the same results could be realized.

Pages: 191-195 | Views: 600 | Downloads: 20

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How to cite this article:
Hudson Nyang'wara Ongiri, Paul Wachiuri Warutumo. Use of triple exponential smoothing in the analysis of hydrological data. Int J Stat Appl Math 2020;5(4):191-195.

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