International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics
2021, Vol. 6, Issue 1, Part A
Application of ARIMA model for forecasts analysis of yield and area of peanut in India
Author(s): MO Wankhade and UV Kale
Abstract: The main objective of this study is to generate and analyze forecasts of area under Peanut and yield of peanut (in quintal/hectare) in India. The data related to area under the crop and yield per hectare is extracted from Government of India, Directorate of Economics and Statistics from the year 19701-71 to 2017-18. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is used for analysis of the data in MINITAB19 statistical software. Randomness of error terms in the model are tested by using Ljung-Box Chi-Square Statistic and Autocorrelation function and Partial Autocorrelation functions. Forecasts related to yield and area of Peanut along with 95% confidence intervals for the period of next 15 years i.e. from 2018-19 to 2032-33 are generated by fitting an ARIMA model. We observed that even though there is downward trend for area under Peanut, yield quintal per hectare showed upward trend.