International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics
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International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics

2022, Vol. 7, Issue 2, Part B

Modelling the relationship between confirmed cases of COVID-19, consumer price index and Nigeria economic growth: A multiple regression model approach


Author(s): Seun Adebowale Adebanjo

Abstract: The focus of this project work is on modeling the relationship between confirmed COVID-19 cases, consumer price index (CPI) and economic growth in Nigeria. Economic growth can be accurately captured by the country's gross domestic product per capita. It is notable that the pandemic has weakened the global economy, among other emerging economies. Nigeria has experienced serious retardation in her economic growth since the emergence of coronavirus disease in February, 2020 and we can see that the total gross domestic product per capita of $2229.85 in 2019 drop to $2148.91 at the end of 2020 due to COVID-19 impact and consequently prompt the Nigeria Government to take a lock down measure so as to contain the spread of the virus. Numerous studies have been conducted regarding this disease and this work goes further to fit a multiple regression to better describe the relationship between cases of the disease and Nigeria's economic growth. The regression model shows a significant linear relationship between cases of COVID-19, consumer price index, and gross domestic product per capita which suggests that the model is valid and suitable for predicting future growth in Nigeria. The multiple R-square of 0.712 is evidence that a about 71.2% of the variation in per capita GDP can be explained by the CPI and confirmed cases. The correlation analysis between confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the country's GDP per capita indicate a negative correlation between them which suggests that the higher the country's monthly confirmed cases of COVID-19, the lower will be its economic growth. The fitted model is robust, valid, reliable, and works well as the underlying assumptions about normality, multicollinearity, and homoscedasticity are satisfied.

DOI: 10.22271/maths.2022.v7.i2b.803

Pages: 108-114 | Views: 245 | Downloads: 20

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How to cite this article:
Seun Adebowale Adebanjo. Modelling the relationship between confirmed cases of COVID-19, consumer price index and Nigeria economic growth: A multiple regression model approach. Int J Stat Appl Math 2022;7(2):108-114. DOI: 10.22271/maths.2022.v7.i2b.803
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