International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics
2022, Vol. 7, Issue 3, Part B
A COVID-19 SEIR model for people living with underlying medical conditions in Kenya
Author(s): Iyaya CC Wanjala, George M Mocheche and Sitawa Wattanga
Abstract: In this study we propose a modified SEIR mathematical transmission model with a focus on Kenyans living with underlying medical conditions. The research will rely on reported data from the Kenya Government’s Ministry of Health to fit the model parameters. The next generation matrix approach is employed to ascertain the level of infection or the stability condition of infection based on the basic reproduction number R0 that the model will determine. Results obtained will give predictions on the impact of the disease on this group of people which will inform government in relation to prioritization of vaccination and other mitigating measures on policy formulation.
Numerical simulations will be used to generate results that will support arguments put forth in this paper.
Iyaya CC Wanjala, George M Mocheche, Sitawa Wattanga. A COVID-19 SEIR model for people living with underlying medical conditions in Kenya. Int J Stat Appl Math 2022;7(3):115-122. DOI: 10.22271/maths.2022.v7.i3b.830