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2022, Vol. 7, Issue 3, Part B

A coherent functional demographic model approach for stochastic population forecasting

Author(s): Ramesh S Patil and Dr. Prafulla V Ubale

Abstract: The present work proposed a new method for coherent mortality forecasting that incorporates forecasting interpretable product and ratio functions of rates using the functional data paradigm introduced in Hyndman and Ullah (2007). The product-ratio functional forecasting method can be applied to two or more sub-populations, incorporates convenient calculation of prediction intervals as well as point forecasts and is suitable for use within a larger stochastic population modeling framework such as Hyndman and Booth (2008). The new method is simple to apply, flexible in its dynamics, and produces forecasts that are at least as accurate in overall terms as the comparable independent method. The main aim of study is to propose the use of Coherent functional demographic model as new approach for population projection. For analysis, two datasets in age-period format required for males and females separately: central death rates (mx) = number of deaths/mid-year population, exposures to the risk of death (ie mid-year population). We compare our results to longer fitting periods by making use of the extrapolated data. Our analysis shows, the estimated average gender-specific mortality (ax), the male and female mortality are almost identical till 20-24; but for subsequent age-groups, the average female mortalities are consistently lower than the male. After analysing stochastic population forecasting by using coherent demographic model, the projected evolution of the population pyramids reveals several insightful information. There is gradual narrowing of base reflecting reduction in birth rate. The gradual bulge towards the top is reflective of reduced mortality across ages. In conclusion, the development of improved mortality forecasting methods, and by extension, fertility and migration forecasting methods, represents a step toward more reliable and automated demographic forecasting.

DOI: 10.22271/maths.2022.v7.i3b.832

Pages: 129-135 | Views: 442 | Downloads: 15

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International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics
How to cite this article:
Ramesh S Patil, Dr. Prafulla V Ubale. A coherent functional demographic model approach for stochastic population forecasting. Int J Stat Appl Math 2022;7(3):129-135. DOI: 10.22271/maths.2022.v7.i3b.832

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