2023, Vol. 8, Issue 5, Part A

This study involved Modeling COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria by using ARIMA and ARIMAX. The data of 33 months was collected based on confirmed cases and temperature, from Nigeria Center for Disease and Control and world weather information respectfully which spanned between February 2020 to October 2022. The aim of this study was to fit parsimonious models into the COVID-19 confirmed case data in the present of temperature. Stationarity of the data was achieved through first differencing. After thorough analysis, ARIMAX (0,1, 2) with exogenous variable (temperature)performed better than ARIMA (0, 1, 2) RMSE and MAE.