International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics
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2023, Vol. 8, Issue 5, Part A

COVID-19 case modeling in Nigeria: Time series analysis using ARIMA and ARIMAX


Author(s): Ajibode IA and Sikiru OA

Abstract:
This study involved Modeling COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria by using ARIMA and ARIMAX. The data of 33 months was collected based on confirmed cases and temperature, from Nigeria Center for Disease and Control and world weather information respectfully which spanned between February 2020 to October 2022. The aim of this study was to fit parsimonious models into the COVID-19 confirmed case data in the present of temperature. Stationarity of the data was achieved through first differencing. After thorough analysis, ARIMAX (0,1, 2) with exogenous variable (temperature)performed better than ARIMA (0, 1, 2) RMSE and MAE.


Pages: 47-52 | Views: 161 | Downloads: 15

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International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics
How to cite this article:
Ajibode IA, Sikiru OA. COVID-19 case modeling in Nigeria: Time series analysis using ARIMA and ARIMAX. Int J Stat Appl Math 2023;8(5):47-52.

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