2024, Vol. 9, Issue 2, Part B

Chhattisgarh State has three agro-climatic zones. The Chhattisgarh Plains, the Bastar Plateau, and the Northern Hills Region. The current study aims to investigate the predictive models and production function for area, production, and productivity of Chilli crops in different agro-climatic zones of Chhattisgarh. The parameters in the estimated prediction model for the area, production, and productivity of the chilli crop for the various agro climatic zones in Chhattisgarh of the 33 districts in the state, only 17 are being studied because secondary data from 2004-05 to 2021-22 are available and were used for the studies. In addition to the trend effect in the time-series data, the predictive model under investigation had the special feature of a structural periodic effect as a factor to capture any cyclic pattern. The acreage, productivity, and production of the chilli crop were assessed for this periodic effect. As an alternative to this model, which serves as the first case and assumes a 3-year periodic cyclic effect along with an annual effect operating within it as a nested effect, another model has also been assumed, for comparison purposes, that combines an overall periodic effect variable with an overall trend effect variable without any nesting. In order to comprehend the impact of an influencing factor-either productivity or area-on the output of chillies, the impacts of crop productivity and area were also determined.