Author(s): GR Halagundegowda, P Kumaresan, J Pallavi, Y Prathap Reddy and S Manthira Moorthy

Abstract: The study aims to analyze the trend, seasonality, and instability components of time series data for both prices and arrivals of mulberry cocoons. The monthly time series data on the prices and arrivals of both bivoltine and crossbreed cocoons from 2005-06 to 2023-24 in major Government Cocoon Markets (GCM) of South India such as Ramanagara (both bivoltine and cross breed), Sidlaghatta (cross breed only), Hindupuram (both bivoltine and cross breed) and Dharmapuri (bivoltine only) were collected and used as input for the analysis. Further, various linear and non linear trend models were fitted and out of all, the compound growth model was found to be significant and good fit for all the markets data. The Mann-Kendal test was employed to know the nature of trend and the ratio to moving average method was used to compute the seasonal index, whereas the Cuddy-Della and Valle (1978) index was used for estimating the instability of the price and arrival series. The result indicates, the bivoltine cocoon arrivals exhibited a positive upward trend characterized by a cubic pattern, while crossbreed arrivals displayed a negative declining trend across all cocoon markets. Further, bivoltine prices illustrated seasonal fluctuations from December to June, whereas crossbreed prices tended to be higher from December to April. The arrivals of bivoltine cocoons in the Hindupur and Dharmapuri markets recorded higher instability values compared to ther markets, while crossbreed cocoon arrivals in the Hindupur market exhibited significant instability. Prices for both bivoltine and crossbreed cocoons demonstrated moderate instability across all markets.

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