Predicting the time until employment of graduates using a prognosis index in survival analysis
Author(s): Consul Juliana Iworikumo
Abstract: This research predicts the time until employment of graduates from Bayelsa State in Nigeria using the prognosis index in survival analysis. The Bayesian approach to inference which requires both the prior information and the observed data from unemployed graduates in different local government areas of Bayelsa state in the form of likelihood was used. The Metropolis - hasting within Gibbs was applied for simulation using the RJAGS software in R and convergence was checked using two chains. The trace plots of the parameters showed that the mixing was satisfactory. High values of the prognostic index indicated the best prognosis outcome for the event of interest (employment). The linear predictor was calculated in a range of 0 to 100 for some covariate vectors which showed that a female graduate with the same covariate vectors as a male graduate had a bit better chance of being employed. The prognosis index can be a reliable platform to help the government of Bayelsa state to strategize ways to tackle unemployment. It will also help individuals to effectively predicting the time until being employed and engage in strategic planning during the period of being unemployed.
Consul Juliana Iworikumo. Predicting the time until employment of graduates using a prognosis index in survival analysis. Int J Stat Appl Math 2025;10(8):01-06. DOI: 10.22271/maths.2025.v10.i8a.2111
