Author(s): Chetna, Monika Devi, Aditi and Ajay Sharma

Abstract: Climate change may have an impact on food availability, accessibility, and quality. For instance, agricultural output may be impacted by decreased projected temperature rises altered precipitation patterns, altered extreme weather occurrences and decreased water availability. Different statistical models have been developed as a result to examine how climate change may affect rice yield at various phases of the crop as well as it has been attempted to forecast its output for Karnal District. Time series data on rice yield for the past 35 years crop and weather variables have been used in the Karnal area of Haryana from 1985-1986 through 2019-20. The relationship between rice crop and various models has been investigated. You can boost your yield by creating fresh weather indices from weekly data. The model takes the weather variable into account. It was discovered that the best models (models I, II, and VII, VIII) for assessing the impact of specific weather variables were linear functions across weeks adjusted crop yield for trend effect and weekly data and weather variables as the independent variables. A forecast model was also built and the findings showed that forecasting at the 15th week of the crop period or one and a half months before harvest, was reliable.

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