2023, Vol. 8, Special Issue 3

Aim: To examine the growth and instability in tasar, eri and muga silk production.

Methodology: The time series data on tasar, eri and muga silk production for the period 1991-92 to 2021-22 were considered for the study. The study period was divided into two parts namely, Period I (1991-2005) and Period II (2006-2021), in order to understand the growth status of vanya silk over a period. The exponential growth function based Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and the Cuddy-Della Valle index was used for computation of growth rate and instability index in silk production, respectively.

Results: Eri (CAGR=5.87%) and Muga silk (CAGR=3.98%) recorded positive growth rates whereas Tasar silk (CAGR= -0.20%) had a negative growth during Period I. Further, all vanya silks, tasar (CAGR=13.66%), eri (CAGR=12.08%) and muga (CAGR=6.29%) recorded positive and higher growth rates during Period II. Tasar (CAGR=10.74%), eri (CAGR=9.31%), muga (CAGR=4.39%) and total vanya (CAGR=9.53%) recorded a positive and higher growth compared to mulberry (CAGR=2.53%) during the overall period, 1991-2021. Tasar and eri silk production exhibited higher instability of the series during Period II compared to Period I, whereas muga possess lower instability index value in period II compared to period I. Tasar (C-D=44.89), eri (C-D=16.01) and muga (C-D=12.84) series possessed a higher instability compared to mulberry (C-D=6.78) during the overall period, 1991-2021.

Interpretation: The findings of the current study reveals that, the growth rate of tasar, eri and muga silks in period II was higher compared to period I, which means, all vanys silks are growing in positive trend over the years. Further, among vanya silk production, the tasar silk production shows higher growth rate compared to eri and muga silk production in overall study period. The result of the instability analysis shows that, tasar silk production possess higher instability (greater fluctuations), followed by eri silk production possess medium level of volatility and muga silk production possess lesser instability or more consistent in production over the years.