Author(s): D Srinivasa Chary, P Ramesh, K. Supriya, A Meena, T Anjaiah and M Ramesh

Abstract: Modelling land use land cover (LULC) change is critical to understand its spatiotemporal trends to protect the land resources sustainably. India has the total geographical area of 3,28,726 thousand hectares out of which, only 1,18,746 thousand hectares area was under cultivation in 1950-51with 111.1% cropping intensity. It has been increased to about 1,40,000 thousand hectares with 151.1% cropping intensity in the year 2019-20. The growth rates in the total cropped area and cropping intensity may not support to the growing population in the country, as per capita availability of land is decreasing day to day. The ARIMA models with different p, d and q values were tested to the land use, land cover statistics data of total cropped area, area sown more than once, area under non-agricultural uses, percentage forest area and barren land area and found the best fitted model based on the highest R2 value, lowest RMSE, MAPE and Normalized BIC values. The total cropped are, area sown more than once, area under non-agricultural uses and percentage forest area have shown increasing trend in the study period, whereas the barren land area has shown negative trend. The total cropped area and the area sown more than once were best fitted with the model. The area under non-agricultural uses and the percentage forest area were best fitted with the model. Whereas the barren land area was best fitted with the . Forecasts of land use, land cover statistics data were made for five years from 2020 to 2024 using the best fitted model.

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