Author(s): P Sujatha and B Sivasankari

Abstract: For proper planning and policy making in the agriculture sector of the country crop yield forecasting and crop acreage estimation are the two important crucial components. This research is a study model of forecasting area, production and productivity of rice and sugarcane in Tamil Nadu. Data for the period of 2000-01 to 2022-23 were analysed by time series methods. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box- Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. For forecasting area, production and productivity ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model respectively were used to forecast five leading years. The forecasts for the next five years were made. We also correlated climate data viz., Temperature and Rainfall with Production. The results showed the area forecast for the year 2023 to be about 1906086.73 hectare with lower and upper limit 1507149.18 and 2305024.28 hectares respectively, production forecast to be about 6115107.56 tonnes with lower and upper limit 3498028.08 and 8732187.05 tonnes respectively and productivity forecast to be about 3.336 tonnes per ha with lower and upper limit 2.413549 and 4.258816 tonnes per ha respectively. Temperature was negatively correlated with production whereas Rainfall was positively correlated with production.

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