2024, Vol. 9, Special Issue 2

Millets are group of small-grained cereal food crops that are highly nutritious and are grown under marginal/low fertile soils with very low inputs such as fertilizers and plant protection chemicals. These crops largely contribute to food and nutritional security of the country. Karnataka state is well known for cultivating minor millets in India, with Pearl Millet, Pearl millet, Foxtail Millet, Little Millet and others, serving as staple meal in the major portion of the state. Forecasting of prices for pearl millet in its major markets is an important aspect in order to facilitate the farmers for their cropping plan. Current study is conducted in Raichur and Koppal districts for which was selected based on the highest arrivals in the selected markets. The time series data on monthly model price of pearl millet and bajra required for the study were collected from the respective APMC office records from 2011-12 to 2021-2022. A mixed Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model developed by Box and Jenkins (1976) was employed to forecast the prices of pearl millet in selected markets. Which involved selection of appropriate model, estimation of parameters, diagnostic checking and finally forecasting the prices. Among the four markets of pearl millet, the price forecast model for Kushtagi market (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1) was found to be best model for pearl millet, likewise, the price forecast model for Gangavathi Market (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1) Manvi (1, 0, 1) (1, 0, 1) and Sindhanur (1, 0, 1) (1, 0, 1). According to the ARIMA forecasts, the prices of pearl millet will increase in next six month.