2024, Vol. 9, Special Issue 5
Forecasting maize prices in major markets: An econometric approach
Author(s): DJ Vekariya and NJ Ardeshna
Abstract: Maize is one of the most important staple crops significantly influenced agricultural productivity, food industry and trade sectors of Indian economy. The nature and extent of price behaviour and fluctuations in maize markets provides essential guidance to farmers, policymakers and stakeholders for efficient marketing and strategic planning. For the present study, monthly time series data on maize prices in six major national markets and two international markets were collected from January, 2005 to December, 2023. The ARIMA, SARIMA and ARCH-GARCH model model were employed to predict the future prices of maize using the SPSS software. By comparison of forecast performance i.e., Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), best fit model was used for prediction of future maize prices. The results of cross validation of each fitted model was compared and model with lesser percentage of absolute error margin was selected as best fit model. The results of price forecasting revealed that in Ranebennur and Argentina market, the predicted values were found to be higher in September month with 2305.59 (Rs./qtl) and 2049.39 (Rs./qtl). Whereas in Chhindwara, Fatehnagar, Kasganj and Himmatnagar markets, the predicted values were found to be higher in December month with 2202.84 (Rs./qtl), 2570.46 (Rs./qtl), 2105.81 (Rs./qtl), 1986.32 (Rs./qtl), respectively. In Dahod market, the predicted prices were found to be higher in month of February with 2406.10 (Rs./qtl). Moreover, in USA market, the predicted prices were found to be higher in month of January with 1877.42 (Rs./qtl).
Pages: 15-22 | Views: 56 | Downloads: 0Download Full Article: Click HereHow to cite this article:
DJ Vekariya, NJ Ardeshna. Forecasting maize prices in major markets: An econometric approach. Int J Stat Appl Math 2024;9(5S):15-22.