Author(s): Suchita Jain, SS Gautam and Navneet Raj Rathore

Abstract: This study evaluates the trends and variability of annual rainfall across six key districts of the Bundelkhand region in Madhya Pradesh, Chhatarpur, Damoh, Datia, Panna, Sagar, and Tikamgarh, over the period 2008 to 2022. Using time series analysis, autocorrelation functions (ACF), and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test supplemented by Sen’s slope estimation, the research documents pronounced inter-annual variability in precipitation but finds no statistically significant long-term trends in rainfall for any district. Slight positive or negative tendencies observed in some districts were not significant at the 95% confidence level. The ACF analysis also revealed no strong year-to-year autocorrelation, indicating rainfall values are largely independent and influenced primarily by natural climatic fluctuations. These findings highlight the predominance of variability over persistent trend in the region’s rainfall patterns, underscoring the need for adaptive water resource management and agricultural planning in the face of an uncertain and variable climate.

DOI: 10.22271/maths.2025.v10.i8Sa.2153

Pages: 53-64 | Views: 164 | Downloads: 2

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