Author(s): Prathima CM, Mohan Kumar TL, Mahin Sharif and DM Gowda

Abstract: Karnataka stands third in the production of coconuts after Kerala and Tamil Nadu. In Karnataka, about 14 per cent of the total production of coconut is harvested in the form of tender nuts, which is confined to Mandya, Bengaluru, Mysore and Hassan districts. Maddur APMC market is one of the world's largest tender coconut hubs. Every day, about four million tender coconuts are brought to the APMC market. Marketing of tender coconut plays a significant role in the movement of commodities from the producer to the consumer and stabilizing prices. Thus, in the present study, two univariate time-series models viz. Holt-Winters’ Exponential Smoothing (H-WES) and seasonal ARIMA models were fitted to monthly arrivals and price data of tender coconuts in Maddur for the period from April 1997 to March 2018. Based on the lowest AIC and BIC, and perusal of ACF and PACF plots, SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (2, 1, 1)₁₂ and ARIMA (1, 1, 3) models were respectively selected as the best models for estimating and forecasting arrivals and prices of tender coconut. The results showed that the seasonal ARIMA model better performed than the H-WMES model for forecasting arrivals and prices of tender coconuts. The seasonal ARIMA model could be successfully used for modelling as well as forecasting of monthly price of forecasting arrivals and prices of tender coconuts.

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