Author(s): David Clarence Gray and Lester Zomatic Tenny

Abstract: In this paper, the logistic growth model was formulated to forecast county-level population counts across Liberia from 2021 to 2031, addressing the limitations of traditional deterministic models currently used in national planning. For Liberia, most demographic projections have relied on constant growth rates under medium fertility scenarios, which fail to account for time-dependent population dynamics or resource constraints. The official projections from the Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS) were used for the period 2008 to 2020. This research identifies a nearly fixed annual growth rate across counties, highlighting the deterministic nature of current methods. A proposed logistic modeling framework integrates time-dependent growth rates and evolving carrying capacities to reflect more realistic demographic changes. The model is calibrated for each of Liberia’s 15 counties and demonstrates that as populations approach their environmental or infrastructural limits, growth rates decline consistently with logistic dynamics. Forecasts reveal that Liberia’s population will increase from approximately 4.71 million in 2021 to 6.38 million by 2031, with growth patterns varying by county. This refined approach provides a more adaptive and evidence-based forecasting tool for long-term planning in sectors such as healthcare, housing, and education, and encourages a shift toward dynamic, data-responsive population modeling in Liberia.

DOI: 10.22271/maths.2025.v10.i6c.2073

Pages: 203-208 | Views: 210 | Downloads: 7

Download Full Article: Click Here