2025, Vol. 10, Issue 8, Part B
Forecasting Missouri river
flow with SARIMA models: A data-driven framework for adaptive water resource
management
Author(s): Boampong Asare
Abstract: A statistical water balance and time series modeling framework is developed to analyze and forecast the Missouri River’s monthly flow at Bismarck from 1954 to 2024. Integrating traditional hydrological components precipitation, evaporation, upstream inflow, tributaries with ARIMA and SARIMA models enable detection of long-term and seasonal trends. Model fit is rigorously assessed by AIC, AICc, BIC, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, and visual diagnostics with credible intervals. Stationarity is evaluated through ADF and KPSS tests to guide model selection. The final SARIMA framework, incorporating Box-Cox transformation and outlier adjustment, produces reliable forecasts with quantified uncertainty for both typical and extreme hydrologic conditions. These forecasts are vital for river management and policy, demonstrating how statistical rigor and visual assessment underpin adaptive water management strategies
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DOI: 10.22271/maths.2025.v10.i8b.2138Pages: 147-159 | Views: 627 | Downloads: 7Download Full Article: Click Here
How to cite this article:
Boampong Asare.
Forecasting Missouri river
flow with SARIMA models: A data-driven framework for adaptive water resource
management. Int J Stat Appl Math 2025;10(8):147-159. DOI:
10.22271/maths.2025.v10.i8b.2138
